Market’s Strong But ‘Age of Opulence’ Ends
A new report by an Alabama-based real estate group specializing in lake properties ranks Canyon Lake as the ninth-largest home market and the fourth-biggest land market in its Texas Top 10.
Canyon Lake’s real estate market is the seventh-largest in the state at just under $115 million — following Possum Kingdom Lake at $140 million and Lake Livingston at approximately $91 million.
Lake Homes Realty also notes Canyon Lake has more real estate listings than any other lake except lakes LBJ and Travis, ranking number three with 563 properties or 7.6 percent of total Texas listings of 7,375.
Click here to read the full report, posted on March 8 to LakeHomes.com, the company’s website.
But What’s the Average Home Price?
Lake Homes Realty says of all lake markets within 30 miles of New Braunfels, Canyon Lake’s average home price of $418,000 (according to their report) is one of the lowest.
However, local Canyon Lake RE/MAX agent Phyllis Brunner says the report’s stated average home price of $418,000 is too high.
“I ran a report from the past six months of both active and sold single-family homes, both new and resale from using the Four Rivers MLS (multiple listing service) and the average I came up with is more like $280,000,” she says. “They may have been averaging new homes only.”
Brunner also manages advertising sales for MyCanyonLake.com.
North v. South
She agrees generally with most of the report, and says real estate is selling equally well both north and south lake. The approximate count of new home sales over the last six months is 81 sold on the north side of the lake, and 47 on the south side of the lake.
The real estate trend Brunner notices most is buyers seeking out single-story homes between 1,200 to 1,500 square feet in subdivisions like Canyon Lake Hills, Canyon Lake Forest, Rocky Creek Ranch and Cypress Cove. These homes sell pre-construction for typically $135 to $165 per square foot.
Age of Opulence Is Over
Cautions Lake Homes Realty CEO Glenn Phillips, the “age of opulence” has passed and owning high-end homes is no longer as popular as it once was.
“This is leading high-end buyers to consider smaller and lower-priced lake homes,” he wrote in his report.
Also, many buyers who can afford high-end lake homes learned during the past real estate bust they may not be able to easily sell such a home in the future, and don’t want to “trap” their money, Phillips says.
According to Lake Home Realty’s report, Canyon Lake:
- Ranks #7 on a list of 10 markets with most homes available with 145 homes for sale
- Ranks #4 on a list of 10 markets with the most land available at 414 properties
- Ranks #10 on a list of 10 markets with listings of 10 acres or more at $42,747 per acre.
- Canyon Lake ranks #17 out of 33 Texas lakes on a graphic titled “Where Are the Million Dollar Listings?”
Some 45 percent of all homes on the market for at least $1 million are on lakes Austin, Travis and LBJ.
“Of the 563 active listings cited in the report, 145 were homes for sale on Canyon Lake, while the remaining 414 were land listings,” says Dezirae Burnett, who works in media relations for Lake Homes Realty, the nation’s largest lake-focused real estate company with properties in 17 states.
“Year to year, the number of Canyon Lake home listings has increased by more than 20 percent,” she says. “Land listings decreased by a smaller amount, 4.5 percent.”
Inventory at nearby Lake McQueeney decreased by about seven percent from Winter 2017 to Winter 2018. Land listings increased by one listing. Homes there average $800,00.
Trends to Watch
More general trends for lake properties identified in the report?
- The next two years will continue to be very active for lake property sales, although the level of
activity will vary at each local market.
- Some markets with high demand by buyers may not continue to see strong increases in the number of transactions year-over-year. The issue is not a lack of buyer interest. The issue is a limited number of “sellable” homes in many lake markets.
- New construction will not quickly resolve this issue (and some lake markets have no room for new construction). The markets with limited sellable homes will instead self-govern the number of transactions.
- Buyers are in no rush to push prices higher very quickly. Some price mindset adjustments may come this year, but these will be market-by-market and not across the lake real estate market as a whole.
- While there are exceptions, lake homes priced between $175,000 and $750,000 will continue to sell well through 2018 and 2019 when appropriately priced for age, location and physical condition.
- Lake homes priced at $1 million or more are selling but not in high demand
- Most lake markets are no longer “buyer’s markets” but this doesn’t mean another real estate boom is underway.
- Buyers don’t just compare a home to others on a specific lake — they compare lake homes on multiple lakes.