Comal County’s Drought Still ‘Extreme’ but ‘Rivers Will Respond’ to Next Week’s Rains

dry canyon lake bed
Canyon Lake is 59% full. Reader Krista Danette said she took this image while walking from Canyon Lake’s Marina headed towards Brookshire Brothers on the north side of Canyon Lake. Along the way she picked up as much broken glass as possible.

Texas moved out of “exceptional drought” on Jan. 9, the first time since March 2022.

But Comal County remains in “extreme drought,” one of nine contiguous counties still in the red on a map of Texas released by the Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) today.

According to the board’s Jan. 15 Water Weekly, large areas of the Panhandle and Central and East Texas saw one category of improvement.

In Comal County, December 2023 was the 54th driest December on record over the past 129 years at .83 inches from normal according to Drought.gov. Last year also was the 20th driest year-to-date over the past 129 years at 9.71 inches below normal.

The good news is the U.S. National Weather Service Austin-San Antonio today said a wetter weather pattern is expected to evolve from late this weekend through next week, with a high likelihood for above-average rainfall.

Probabilities for at least one inch of rain through next Wednesday are highest across the central and eastern half of the area.

Comal County is 74% more likely to receive an inch or more of rain during this period, placing it firmly in the green on the weather service’s 6-10 day precipitation outlook map.

According to the weather service’s Gulf River Forecast Center (WGRFC)  “rivers will respond” to the widespread rainfall, including the Guadalupe River.

This week’s cold temperatures will have a significant impact on next week’s “river responses,” the forecast center said.

“If vegetation was not in its ‘dormant’ phase before, it is now,” WGRFC shared on Facebook. “Expect more efficient runoff. With higher rainfall amounts, WGRFC forecasters will watch for responses on area rivers. Our hydrologic ensembles are flagging several more points for possible moderate river flooding than the previous several events.”

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